Fantasy football Do Not Draft list
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
The mere concept of a “do not draft” list seems odd to me. Of course I would draft the likes of quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady, as well as awesome wide receivers Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant, and there’s really nothing wrong with top tight end Jimmy Graham, but these guys aren’t ending up on my teams. My 2013 strategy is clear and obvious to me: Get your running backs early and often and enjoy the unique depth this season at the other main fantasy positions. It’s supply versus demand, and while there may be nobody supplying numbers quite like Rodgers or Megatron, the demands of finding competent running backs to get through a season is critical as well.
Rather than ripping on the top non-running backs that I actually have nothing negative to report on, like each of the aforementioned players, it seems wiser to discuss the players that, regardless of position, I’m just not a big fan of for value this season. As a result, I do not figure to draft them. It doesn’t mean you should not draft them, because if the value is right, the wise and smart fantasy owner should reconsider. However, I’ve participated in a flurry of drafts, both real and mock, already, and these players below are not ending up on my teams, and it’s likely not by accident. Let’s go in order of ESPN average live draft position and get as many names in as possible. By the way, the guy scheduled to lead this list a few weeks ago was Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Percy Harvin. That proved prescient! In addition, Danario Alexander was also on the list below, but suffered a torn ACL on Tuesday and will miss the 2013 season.
Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders: As desperate as I am to enter a typical fourth round with three running backs set, a few times I’ve detoured a bit into the wide receiver world and filled the flex position with one of the pass catchers, bypassing McFadden and the next guy on this list. I kept looking for reasons -- any reason, really -- to drop this brittle duo out of my top 20 running backs and finally I did it, moving up younger and healthier players ahead of them, even unaccomplished ones like David Wilson, Montee Ball (a rookie! E-gads!) and Lamar Miller. McFadden’s talents are pretty clear. But health is a skill, and he just doesn’t have it to any consistent level. When he did have it more than half of the 2012 season, he wasn’t any good, averaging 3.3 yards per carry and scoring three total touchdowns. Honestly, I don’t think I’ve drafted a Raider anywhere this summer, except maybe Sebastian Janikowski. There are other running back-starter types whose ADP I don’t particularly agree with, such as Steven Jackson (he’s 30, people!), Chris Johnson (way overrated), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (there’s a rookie ready to usurp his job) and for that matter, most rookies, but I feel stronger about avoiding McFadden and the next fellow.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys: I laughed out loud to an audience of zero when I saw Murray recently tell reporters he was 100 percent heading into training camp. Well, how awesome! I’ve ended up with Cowboys rookie Joseph Randle on half my teams for a reason. Murray missed games in college and nine of 32 NFL contests so far, and the only monster fantasy game of his career was his coming out party with 253 rushing yards in Week 6 of 2012. That’s about it.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots: The main reason I’ve ignored Graham and Gronk is because they’re being drafted in an area where I can still find reasonable running backs, and I don’t like the value. But I have to admit I just don’t want to deal with Gronk’s injury woes, too. It seems unlikely he plays a major role in September, and I liked the tight end depth this season. Jared Cook has ended up on half my teams, but the commitment is an 11th-rounder, not a top-50 pick. I’m not skeptical about Gronkowski performing at the highest level when he’s playing, but I don’t want to roster multiple tight ends and worry from week to week, either, and there is downside with such an early selection.
Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots: I have little doubt skills are the issue preventing him from achieving what Wes Welker did with Tom Brady at quarterback. Let’s just say the Patriots medical staff will be awfully busy this season.
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers: It’s certainly possible that he and Colin Kaepernick can form a love connection in relation to targets, but they sure didn’t last season, and I don’t think it was all Michael Crabtree’s fault. Crabtree is out of the picture, and rumors of Davis lining up at wide receiver seem optimistic at best. I’ve ranked Davis as the No. 5 tight end by some default, and based on track record, but a good three rounds later than he’s actually going.
Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers: As you might have surmised, injury-prone players don’t show up on many of my teams. This guy broke more collarbones than he had touchdowns scored last season. I’m not saying I could do better, but when it comes to choosing a flex option, you bet I can.
Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: Brown was supposed to make major strides last season, and now that Mike Wallace is gone many seem to believe that was the problem. I think the problem is he’s not a big guy, not a red zone target, not the home run threat many believe, and while perfectly suitable for a 70-catch season and 1,000 yards, he’s being drafted like a sure WR2.
Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington Redskins: Foot, toe and shoulder injuries truncated his 2012 season, and while the upside is tremendous, he’s still hurt. It’s not that I’m ignoring him in drafts as much as I’m targeting healthier options with upside, like Cecil Shorts, Torrey Smith and T.Y. Hilton.
Seattle Seahawks defense: Name a defense going earlier than the second-to-last round, and I’m bypassing it. Depending on special league rules and a lack of interesting flex alternatives and I might bend that rule by a round, but certainly not in the first 10 rounds. Five defenses are going in the top 100 in ESPN ADP! Come on!
Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: This has nothing to do with the decisions this guy has made off the field, but on the field he’s constantly making poor decisions as well, and this new Chip Kelly offense will be a challenge for him. Oh, and he can’t stay healthy. I don’t see the upside, and if I’m choosing a fantasy backup, it will either be a more proven veteran like Ben Roethlisberger/Eli Manning/Joe Flacco or an upside guy like Sam Bradford/Ryan Tannehill. I’m also unlikely to be drafting Jay Cutler or Josh Freeman as a backup.
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
The mere concept of a “do not draft” list seems odd to me. Of course I would draft the likes of quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady, as well as awesome wide receivers Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant, and there’s really nothing wrong with top tight end Jimmy Graham, but these guys aren’t ending up on my teams. My 2013 strategy is clear and obvious to me: Get your running backs early and often and enjoy the unique depth this season at the other main fantasy positions. It’s supply versus demand, and while there may be nobody supplying numbers quite like Rodgers or Megatron, the demands of finding competent running backs to get through a season is critical as well.
Rather than ripping on the top non-running backs that I actually have nothing negative to report on, like each of the aforementioned players, it seems wiser to discuss the players that, regardless of position, I’m just not a big fan of for value this season. As a result, I do not figure to draft them. It doesn’t mean you should not draft them, because if the value is right, the wise and smart fantasy owner should reconsider. However, I’ve participated in a flurry of drafts, both real and mock, already, and these players below are not ending up on my teams, and it’s likely not by accident. Let’s go in order of ESPN average live draft position and get as many names in as possible. By the way, the guy scheduled to lead this list a few weeks ago was Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Percy Harvin. That proved prescient! In addition, Danario Alexander was also on the list below, but suffered a torn ACL on Tuesday and will miss the 2013 season.
Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders: As desperate as I am to enter a typical fourth round with three running backs set, a few times I’ve detoured a bit into the wide receiver world and filled the flex position with one of the pass catchers, bypassing McFadden and the next guy on this list. I kept looking for reasons -- any reason, really -- to drop this brittle duo out of my top 20 running backs and finally I did it, moving up younger and healthier players ahead of them, even unaccomplished ones like David Wilson, Montee Ball (a rookie! E-gads!) and Lamar Miller. McFadden’s talents are pretty clear. But health is a skill, and he just doesn’t have it to any consistent level. When he did have it more than half of the 2012 season, he wasn’t any good, averaging 3.3 yards per carry and scoring three total touchdowns. Honestly, I don’t think I’ve drafted a Raider anywhere this summer, except maybe Sebastian Janikowski. There are other running back-starter types whose ADP I don’t particularly agree with, such as Steven Jackson (he’s 30, people!), Chris Johnson (way overrated), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (there’s a rookie ready to usurp his job) and for that matter, most rookies, but I feel stronger about avoiding McFadden and the next fellow.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys: I laughed out loud to an audience of zero when I saw Murray recently tell reporters he was 100 percent heading into training camp. Well, how awesome! I’ve ended up with Cowboys rookie Joseph Randle on half my teams for a reason. Murray missed games in college and nine of 32 NFL contests so far, and the only monster fantasy game of his career was his coming out party with 253 rushing yards in Week 6 of 2012. That’s about it.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots: The main reason I’ve ignored Graham and Gronk is because they’re being drafted in an area where I can still find reasonable running backs, and I don’t like the value. But I have to admit I just don’t want to deal with Gronk’s injury woes, too. It seems unlikely he plays a major role in September, and I liked the tight end depth this season. Jared Cook has ended up on half my teams, but the commitment is an 11th-rounder, not a top-50 pick. I’m not skeptical about Gronkowski performing at the highest level when he’s playing, but I don’t want to roster multiple tight ends and worry from week to week, either, and there is downside with such an early selection.
Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots: I have little doubt skills are the issue preventing him from achieving what Wes Welker did with Tom Brady at quarterback. Let’s just say the Patriots medical staff will be awfully busy this season.
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers: It’s certainly possible that he and Colin Kaepernick can form a love connection in relation to targets, but they sure didn’t last season, and I don’t think it was all Michael Crabtree’s fault. Crabtree is out of the picture, and rumors of Davis lining up at wide receiver seem optimistic at best. I’ve ranked Davis as the No. 5 tight end by some default, and based on track record, but a good three rounds later than he’s actually going.
Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers: As you might have surmised, injury-prone players don’t show up on many of my teams. This guy broke more collarbones than he had touchdowns scored last season. I’m not saying I could do better, but when it comes to choosing a flex option, you bet I can.
Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: Brown was supposed to make major strides last season, and now that Mike Wallace is gone many seem to believe that was the problem. I think the problem is he’s not a big guy, not a red zone target, not the home run threat many believe, and while perfectly suitable for a 70-catch season and 1,000 yards, he’s being drafted like a sure WR2.
Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington Redskins: Foot, toe and shoulder injuries truncated his 2012 season, and while the upside is tremendous, he’s still hurt. It’s not that I’m ignoring him in drafts as much as I’m targeting healthier options with upside, like Cecil Shorts, Torrey Smith and T.Y. Hilton.
Seattle Seahawks defense: Name a defense going earlier than the second-to-last round, and I’m bypassing it. Depending on special league rules and a lack of interesting flex alternatives and I might bend that rule by a round, but certainly not in the first 10 rounds. Five defenses are going in the top 100 in ESPN ADP! Come on!
Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: This has nothing to do with the decisions this guy has made off the field, but on the field he’s constantly making poor decisions as well, and this new Chip Kelly offense will be a challenge for him. Oh, and he can’t stay healthy. I don’t see the upside, and if I’m choosing a fantasy backup, it will either be a more proven veteran like Ben Roethlisberger/Eli Manning/Joe Flacco or an upside guy like Sam Bradford/Ryan Tannehill. I’m also unlikely to be drafting Jay Cutler or Josh Freeman as a backup.
